Monday, November 17, 2008

There's a new index to kick us around

There’s a new index in town. It’s called  the Global Dow.


Now we have something else to watch go down, I guess.


The index launched Tuesday and contains 150 stocks, rather than the 30 its cousin, the Dow Jones Industrial Average contains.


And rather than strictly U.S. companies, the Global Dow reflects stocks from around the world, as its name implies.


It includes Russian oil and gas giant Gazprom OAO, Spanish bank Banco Santander and Chinese solar firm Suntech Power holdings.


Of course, some U.S. stocks on the tradition Dow like United Technologies Corp. (UTX) and Wal-Mart (WMT) are also on the Global Dow.


In introducing the new index, Wall Street Journal Managing Editor Robert Thomson said the Global Dow is a reflection of the increasingly interconnected world of commerce and finance.


"What's become very obvious, sometimes painfully obvious, is that the world has never been more coupled commercially and financially," Thomson said at a press conference.


He gave as examples the world's attention on China's recently announced $500 billion-plus economic stimulus package and the impact of tiny Iceland's financial collapse on the rest of the globe.


"Who would have thought a relatively small country would have so much impact," Thomson posited.


The geographic weightings are as follows: U.S., 42 percent; Europe, 32 percent; and Asia-Pacific, 21 percent. The rest is sprinkled among emerging markets.


Though the index gives a broad and unique measure of global growth and investing potential, the stocks in it have had a far-from-stellar year so far.


Taking the index back from Oct. 31 to the beginning of the year, it has lost 42 percent on a return basis, according to MarketWatch.


But back-tested five years, the Dow Global Index would have returned 17.8 percent, better than the returns of its close relatives, the DJ Wilshire Total Market Index and the S&P Global 100 — 15.4 percent and 13 percent, respectively.


Should I stay or should I go?


The markets continue their see-saw ride. Witness last week when the Dow closed down 411 points, then up 552 points and then down 337 points on Friday.


This isn't volatility. This is gut-wrenching, white-knuckle, roller-coaster-off-the-rails insanity.


With the markets in decline more than 40 percent since the highs of last October, many say it's too late to cut your losses and get in cash. It's best to ride this thing out.


They say you should even be buying — that stocks are at unprecedented lows and one can clean up and be sitting pretty three to five years from now.


I remain committed to doing nothing. I am still in stocks, but I am more poised to sell than buy.


I'd rather regret potential gains than realized losses.


Brian



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