Monday, October 13, 2008

Don't push yet, I'm checking the Dow

So there I was with my wife this past Friday, waiting for our new beloved addition, Cooper James Neill, to enter this world.

It was a tough day for my wife, who endured 18 hours of labor before our 7-pound, 13-ounce little boy was making his way to be weighed and swaddled.

It was a tough day for me, too, as I struggled to check stock quotes on my laptop infrequently enough to not draw ire from my wife and mother-in-law, but frequently enough to know whether I should throw up my arms and cash in my chips as the market continued its mounting loss — currently at more than 40 percent below October highs.

Fortunately, stronger labor came on for my wife right about the time the Dow was logging its worst gains for the day, otherwise I might have panicked and hit the “sell” button.

What kind of thoughtless, unfeeling lunatic is sitting there checking stock quotes while his wife is in labor?

Well, a lunatic who is scared to death of a complete unraveling of the financial system, but still has the intestinal fortitude and faith (stupidity?) to keep playing this game called the stock market.

I can’t tell you how many people I’ve heard say lately that they’re not even opening their 401(k) statements because they’re afraid of what they will see. To me, that doesn’t even make any sense.

But admittedly, I, too, am being a little hands-off at the moment.

At this point, it’s down to what our leaders and those of other nations have been able to craft this past weekend in the way of a fix to the current global economic crisis.

Understandably, some countries are resentful that they’re being asked to subsidize the financial errors committed in the United States through the rampant speculation in the subprime mortgage market.

But as of Sunday evening, most countries had acknowledged the magnitude of the financial crisis and were working to bolster banks and financial institutions.

It is certain that we are at a turning point — one that will take us ever deeper into the abyss, or one that will make the dedicated and patient investors a whole lot of money.

The Wall Street Journal carried an interesting piece this weekend that drew a comparison between today’s stock values and those during the bottom of the Great Depression.

Currently, nearly one in 10, or 876 stocks, are trading below the value of their per-share holdings of cash — bargain-basement cheap, according to the Journal.

I still remain in the game with Apple (AAPL), Mosaic (MOS), Southern Company (SO), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Procter & Gamble (PG), Perrigo (PRGO), International Business Machines (IBM) and FTI Consulting (FCN).

My stock allocation is about 50 percent. I’ve scaled into these over the past month or so from an all-cash position. As of now, I’m down about 7.5 percent.


Brian

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