Monday, October 20, 2008

Buffett's words wisdom or strategy?

Warren Buffett’s op-ed in the New York Times last week caused quite a buzz.

In it, he declared that now was the time to buy U.S. stocks and that was exactly what he was doing.

“A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful,” Buffett wrote. “And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors.” For many pundits this effectively signaled an all-clear.

But at least one individual questioned putting too much stock in Buffett’s blessing.

David Weidner wrote on MarketWatch.com the following day that Buffett doesn’t buy stocks like you and I do.

We can’t, for instance, buy thousands of shares in General Electric (GE) and negotiate for $3 billion in special preferred stock that pays a 10 percent dividend for at least three years, Weidner wrote. Ditto for Buffett’s purchase of $5 billion in preferred stock in Goldman Sachs (GS), which also gives him a 10 percent dividend and warrants to buy future shares at discount prices.

However, even Buffett didn’t think shares in the companies were going to drop as far as they have, Weidner asserts.

“One cheap, easy way for Buffet to reverse his losses is by penning an editorial using his huge sway, folksy style and hints of patriotism to stir up some buying,” Weidner wrote.

Whether that is true or not, many investors, including me, get lulled into Buffett’s sage grandfather schtick and become mesmerized by the financial media hanging on his every word.

It’s easy to forget that Buffett, like all the rest of us, is out to make a buck. He didn’t get to be a billionaire without a high degree of shrewdness.

But I do believe that now is a good time to be buying.

I remain in the market with about a 50 percent allocation to stocks and I’m keeping my eyes open for things that look intriguing.

Here are a couple I’m keeping my eyes on:

Thoratec (THOR). This medical company makes the HeartMate II ventricular assist device. It also makes blood pumps and various medical testing devices.

The company’s stock has risen from the $15 a share range to $27 since April, despite the carnage in the market lately.

Investor’s Business Daily gives the stock its highest composite rating, a 99, based on its profit growth, price strength and other factors. Thoratec carries an A+ rating from Investor’s Business Daily for its accumulation, meaning high-volume buying taking place in its shares.

Another thing that makes it attractive is its place among health care stocks, which have been showing a lot of strength lately.

Another stock in the same industry field that I’ve been watching is Emergent Biosolutions (EBS).

The company makes various vaccines, inluding ones that protect against weapons of bioterrorism.

Emergent Biosolutions announced this month that the U.S. government had committed to purchase 14.5 million doses of its BioThrax anthrax vaccine in a contract worth $404 million. That’s on top of an existing $448 million contract the company already has with the government.

Some analysts, however, predict soft earnings for the company when it reports Nov. 6.

As always, don’t take my mention of a stock as an endorsement to buy it. You can lose money doing so.

Brian.

1 comments:

forexthinker.com said...

The always present news about Warren Buffet, Chairman of Berkshire-Hathaway, make it easy to come to the conclusion that he is a great investor and a fund manager with a wide following among other investors.
Currently, technical market indicators are bearish and so are the fundamentals of the US economy. It will take 3 to 4 months of consecutive rises in the index of leading economic indicators, employment figures, GDP, retail sales, consumer confidence, housing starts, and other economic data to assure investors that a rally in stock prices is real. Many investors will also wait for the next administration to unveil its fiscal and monetary policies.
Mr. Buffet is a long term investor. He doesn’t mind if the market goes down before it rises to higher levels again.